Future: Books and Managing Complexity (with computers)
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©Copyright 1996, Rainer von Königslöw. All rights reserved.
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Books and Managing Complexity
Draft: for review only
Rainer von Königslöw
Version 0.1: June 14, 1997
Copyright 1997, All rights reserved.
The future of books: trends
Integrate money flows and credit reporting more elegantly - improve reporting to individuals, households
All income, expenses directly reported into individual accounts, but with better privacy and secrecy protection
trends: books less static, more immediately connected to symbolic reality, physical reality through sensors, faster changing, more integration and connection to other information
New paradigms
Interactive books
video games
electronic banking
computer aided learning
Integrating different types of information
multi media - MacroDirector
animation - PowerPoint presentations
How can we re-design and re-engineer user's tasks? (CSALT '94)
Four examples illustrate how some user tasks could be re-engineered:
Electronically supported telephone and video conferencing
Let us assume a lawyer is on the phone with a client and would like to investigate a point of law. In such a context speed is of the essence. One cannot hold a client on the phone while paging through books. Ideally one should be able to look up relevant information with very few keystrokes and display it on a convenient monitor. There should also be confidence that the risk of missing relevant information is as low as desired. If several disparate chunks of information are necessary, one should be able to display them in separate windows, possibly on multiple monitors.
Library alerts for work where legislation or a case has changed
It would be useful to receive an alert from the electronic library that a document needs to be revisited because there was a change in the environment such as a change in the legislation or a reversal in a case on appeal which materially affects the matter at hand.
Let us take a tax plan as illustration. Let us assume the plan is expressed in an electronic book with explicit references to narrow chunks of information which are time stamped. Let us assume that the references go through the central catalogue. Let us further assume that an update is acquired and integrated into the catalogue, the update has newer time stamps for some of the relevant information (the information has changed). Let us further assume that there is a program which sweeps through all internal documents to identify references to changed information (on the update disk). Authors of such documents can be notified automatically to decide whether they need to review the document; want to keep the reference to the previous chunk of information; or want to change the reference to the now current information.
Work in progress
A deal team is working on a very large and complex document. The essential logic is captured in a skeleton which functions somewhat like a catalogue or index to the document. As the members work independently on different segments of the document, the cross reference to key assumptions can be verified (and time stamped) to ensure that another member of the team has not introduced changes in key elements of the skeleton. Tedious and expensive rework is prevented.
Taking work home or to a client's site
One can have remote access to an electronic library and to one's files through modem communication (with call-back modems high levels of security can be maintained). Alternatively one can copy the relevant information onto a recordable CD-ROM. The latter approach is secure and does not require the firm to maintain a bank of high speed modems. One CD can store the word processing documents as well as a number of source texts (if they are available as electronic books).
How do we get there from here?
All the above examples can be accomplished with present technologies. Some of them will be clumsy until more standards and more mature technologies are in place.
To develop in-house publications or an in-house electronic library an organization needs both library management skills and project development by people that have the skills to deal with software packages such as Folio Views. It may develop skills in-house by hiring in or with training courses. It may have the publications produced externally by companies specializing in the field. A hybrid approach is often the fastest and most cost effective, where the first publications are done outside, but with the active participation of in-house staff in apprenticeship mode.
Major consideration: Information representation and mapping
measurement theory
numbers
descriptive text
emotive, evocative
instructional text, how to
equations
programs
interpretive
speech acts
ambiguous
Major consideration: Cognitive Ergonomics
Introduction
Much of ergonomics deals with the physical relationship of people
to environments, including computers. In the relationship of people
to computers, the main emphasis has been on the user interface. The
physical component of the user interface involves objects such as
keyboards, monitors, and a mouse. The physical aspects may deal with
lighting, keyboard layout, relationships of hands and eyes of a seated
person to the keyboard and monitor, etc. There is an important cognitive
component to the user interface, dealing with ease of understanding
and the relationship between the requirements of the computer and
the skills and mental models of the user.
The approach I am developing here might be called cognitive ergonomics. As part of this approach I will to broaden the concept of user
interface to include not only the relationship between an end-user
and an information processing application, but generalize it to the relationship between management and other people and abstract objects which may include MIS departments and source files for computer programs. All of this will be developed below. Let me start with a brief perspective on information processing.
Computing has evolved over the years, and is continuing its evolution.
My own involvement only dates back to the late fifties and early sixties,
so I shall start there. In that period I recall a fair bit of diverse
computing, where problems were solved with a combination of approaches
that might involve card sorting as well as digital computing, and
even include analog computing.
Later, with the strengthening of digital approaches, computing seemed
to get relatively more homogeneous with the development of large applications.
In the last ten years or so, with the advent of relatively inexpensive
minis, workstations and PCs, problem solving again became more diversified.
It might involve databases on a mainframe, communications to a smaller
system such as a PC, and then use of spreadsheets, wordprocessing,
and other diverse application programs.
Two trends may signal an increase both in the rate of change and in
the eventual complexity of the process: the increased use of distributed
computing, and the increased involved of non-computing experts in
application development such as with the use of spreadsheet macros
and expert systems.
I believe that the limiting factor to the use of computers is neither
a limit in scope of applicability nor a cost or access factor. I believe
that the limit is due to limits in our ability to understand and to
manage both information processing and change in information processing.
It is this general issue that I wish to address.
Ergonomics applied to abstract objects
Ergonomics traditionally is the study of the relationship between
people and objects in the environment. I would like to extend the
concept to consider the relationship between people and abstract objects,
including macroscopic objects such as "information processing" in
an organization. In other words I suggest treating information processing
as an object so that ergonomics can be applied to it.
"Information processing" is an entity, an abstract object to upper
management. Ergonomics might then apply "to improve the user interface"
to information processing, so that it becomes more manageable.. They
have to understand what they hear from and about information processing
in the organization, and they have to know which "buttons to push"
to make it work properly for the organization.
To treat information processing as an object we need a model. We shall
start with an analogy. Information processing "processes" information.
Let us extend the analogy by comparing information to a packaged food,
and information processing to a chemical processing plant.
Later on in the discussion we shall look at information processing
at a lower level of abstraction. We shall extend the analogy to identify
people and roles. We shall look at some alternative approaches and
explore what ergonomics might have to contribute.
The role of ergonomics
Cognitive ergonomics suggests that people have to have a mental model that they can understand clearly. Above we have suggested the use of analogies to provide such a model.
Upper management is primarily involved in monitoring and in providing objectives for project management. Use of an analogy suggests that reports to upper management, and decision options be structured and presented in a form to fit the model.
If the model is seen to have inadequacies, it is suggested to construct a second model, based on a different analogy. The models can then be compared and contrasted. It is suggested that the models allow people to place specific issues in context.
Analogies for information packaging and for information processing
A packaged food analogy for information
Before getting to the main analogy, I would like to briefly introduce
the use of an analogy to raise questions and to act as basis for a
model. For fun and entertainment, let me start with a small analogy
that treats information as analogous to a food product.
Information is like food, some occurs naturally but most
is manufactured
Usually we only see the end-product in its package. We can
evaluate it by its packaging and by its taste, but it is difficult
to know the contents.
There is no "truth in packaging" law to label the ingredients
of information
There is no "Food & Drug Admin." (U.S.) to test for safety
and risk of repeated exposure to particular information
small exception: TV violence
Information goes stale, but it is rarely dated for expiry
Information is trendy, more is available on current topics:
collapse of communism ... recession ... the war ...
Like groceries, most information is not consumed directly,
but combined with other information for further processing.
The analogy raises questions. We are invited to visualize information
as a nicely packaged sausage in the grocery store. Using the analogy
we can explore attributes of information that might be overlooked
in the normal context.
A chemical plant analogy for information processing
The main analogy we are proposing below is somewhat more complex,
but has more points of comparison. In fact, an analogy of information
processing with a conveyor belt manufacturing operation such as a
car plant might have even greater similarity, but then the manufacturing
operation becomes too complex to provide a clear enough model for
our purposes.
1 Information processing as manufacturing process
1.1 Manufacturing information in a large organization
might be seen as analogous to a chemical plant, with information flowing
through pipes, being combined and modified, and being stored in vessels.
1.2 Information has to be fed in, from suppliers.
Some is entered "just-in-time", while other information is stockpiled
with delayed entry.
1.3 There needs to be quality assurance (receiving
inspection) on information entered into the process.
1.4 The processing can be automated either in part
or completely
1.5 There is a risk of things going wrong, and there
is risk of human error.
1.6 If programs are like reaction vessels, pipes
are I/O streams connecting programs, and databases are storage vessels.
1.6.1 Data flow diagrams play a similar role to PFDs
(Process Flow Diagrams), and to PIDs (Piping and Instrumentation)
Diagrams.
1.6.2 There is an assumed temporal ordering, where
information flows into the inputs and flows through subsequent processing
stages until it flows out the output.
1.6.3 Traditionally the processing is viewed as unchanging,
just like the reaction vessels, and the information flows through
the programs, from input to output.
1.6.4 In reality, even in chemical plants the processing
is changed over time - engineers are always improving the processes.
1.6.5 By changing the process, the output may be
changed, which in turn affects the next process -- so that changes
can propagate through the plant, with no definite scope of how far
the change will propagate. This means that "subsequent" or "downstream"
processes have to be adjusted.
1.6.6 Large software systems are at least as complex
as large chemical plants.
1.7 Large plants are usually divided into smaller
plants that act as suppliers and customers to each other
1.7.1 one plant delivers feedstock to another plant,
i.e., produces intermediate products
1.7.2 Intermediate products may be held in large
holding tanks between plants
1.7.3 In information processing one can usually identify
intermediate information products, and subdivide on that basis.
2 Process control for manufacturing information
2.1 In continuous chemical processing, process control
is concerned mainly with adapting the processing to variations in
the feedstock and to variations in the processing environment.
2.1.1 Variations in the feedstock include variations
in the chemicals that enter the process, including impurities, relative
concentrations, and including physical characteristics such as temperature
and particle size.
2.1.2 Variations in the processing environment can
include external factors such as temperature, humidity which affect
heating and cooling. It can also include internal factors such as
clogged filters and the efficiency of pumps.
2.1.3 Temporal order in the processing is "built
in", i.e. it is determined by traversal of the chemicals through the
piping & vessels.
2.1.4 Most process control systems depend on local,
negative feedback controls. Feedforward controls and large plant integrations
have been difficult to archieve.
2.2 The main process control for information manufacturing
is temporal ordering. Much of this is automated in a secondary layer
of information processing. Handling exception events is where the
human operators become involved, much like in chemical plants.
3 Changing the manufacturing process for information
3.1 Updating information processes in an organization
is analogous to updating the process in a chemical plant
3.2 The process in plants is not static - process
improvements are invented and implemented regularly.
3.2.1 Typically this involves a sequence of invention
& development, pilot testing and modifications (possibly in a pilot
plant), then integration in the target plant.
3.3 Piping, vessels, and instrumentation such as
actuators and sensors are changed regularly in a continuing effort
to improve productivity and quality.
3.4 Specialty engineering facilities and plants are
set up to research improvements and to produce the piping, vessels,
and instrumentation to implement it. These may be part of the plant
or act as suppliers to the plant.
3.5 The rate of change is limited by how fast changes
can be invented, how fast the piping and instrumentation can be built,
and how long it takes to implement the change in the plant.
3.6 To implement the change, the process has to be
shut down, old piping and instrumentation removed, new piping and
instrumentation inserted, and the process has to be started up again.
3.7 The change in process is different from the manufacturing
process: building and installing piping and instrumentation is a mechanical
process while the manufacturing process is chemical.
3.7.1 In information processing, on the other hand,
changing the process still involves processing information: a new
program is developed and put into place.
3.7.2 Although not usually done, it is possible to
change the process without shutting down information processing activities
3.7.3 It is possible to design self-modifying systems
- such as Neural Networks and other forms of machine learning.
3.7.3.1 In some cases these systems return to the
same state with equivalent input. One might think of the learning
as adaptive and reversible. In this case they act like systems with
integrated process controls.
3.7.3.2 In some cases these systems do not return
to the same state, even with long sequences of equivalent input. In
this case the "learning" may be irreversible. If the nature of the
change is not fully predictable and not easy to monitor than these
systems are hard to manage.
4 Project management for the change in manufacturing
process
4.1 Project management for change projects plays
the same role as process control for processing: it orders and controls
the process.
4.2 The invention and development component usually
involves repeated operations such as experiments and successive approximations.
There is reasonable project management and process control for each
of the components, but much less control for the overall project.
4.3 Sometimes the invention generates major challenges
for process control, such as when new sensors have to be developed,
and new ways of controlling a process have to be invented. In some
cases the invention focusses less on the novelty of the process and
more on the novelty of the process control.
4.4 The pilot testing and modification cycle again
involves repeated operations. It is somewhat more predictable and
controllable than the invention process, but there are still uncertainties
how many cycles will be required until all the problems are solved.
4.5 The implementation phase is under good project
management - with methods developed from years of experience and tools
from the building industry etc.
4.6 Software development follows a similar cycle,
involving invention, pilot development and scale up implementation.
4.6.1 Prototyping is similar to pilot plant experimentation.
The challenge for cognitive ergonomics
There is an important cognitive
component to the user interface, dealing with ease of understanding
and the relationship between the requirements of the computer and
the skills and mental models of the user.
Information to people & information from people
In an earlier section we identified end-users as playing two roles according to our analogy: information suppliers and information receivers. We shall focus most of the subsequent discussion on people as information receiver. This is an area where much can be done with current technology.
When people are the information suppliers, they depend on the capabilities of the computer as information receivers. One relevant
research topic is natural language understanding - both in written
and spoken form. A second is computer understanding of graphs and pictures. In both areas progress has been slow and difficult. The net result is that people still have to adapt to computer capabilities and limitations to function as information suppliers.
In the discussion below we shall therefore focus mainly on people as information receivers. In this section we shall focus primarily on identifying the challenges.
General topics
Form & content
Presenting information requires both form and content. A sequence of numbers is a good example. The information can be presented as a column of numbers in a spreadsheet, or it can be presented as a graph. The content is the same, but the form of presentation is quite different.
Meaning & ambiguity
There is a variety of ways of extracting meaning from information. For example, a message to the operator of a chemical plant may indicate to him that the process needs tuning, possibly by raising a set point.
The message may well be extracted from a large number of tags values over several minutes. In other words, the message represents an information reduction. However, the message may only indicate the problem, and several control strategies may be available. In other words, the present message may well be ambiguous. In an extended system, a more explicit message may suggest a control strategy as well as an action sequence to implement the control strategy. In this case there would have been information expansion after the information reduction to reduce the ambiguity in the meaning of the message to the operator.
Speech acts & other analogies
Role related topics
Running the process: End-users
The requirements are distinct for different end-users in distinct roles. In general one has to analyse what they have to do with the information. For example, the operator of a chemical plant has to evaluate the information as part of a decision to implement a different control strategy. The eventual action may be: